Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.  Some members in the BJP are hailing this Budget as a dream Budget.  I have to agree, Mr. Chairman, because after all, a dream is something that is completely divorced from reality. 

          I have two fundamental problems with the Budget  of my good friend Mr. Jaitley.  First, its widely optimistic numbers and projections. Second, the gap between the Government’s ambitious objectives and the Budget funds allocated to achieve them.  Let me explain my concerns about each. 

          First, on the numbers, this Government is noted for its bold numbers and bolder ambitions which are frankly  too good to be realistic. Our growth projections for 2016 have been etched between 8.1 per cent and 8.5 per cent, which is contrary to the IMF’s already optimistic forecast of 7.5 per cent.

Similarly, the Government, in its maiden Budget, had predicted a GDP growth of 13.4 per cent from its advance estimates but only attained the growth of 11.4 per cent.  It fell short by two percentage points.  So, I remain doubtful of the Government’s wisdom at projecting such a figure when the industry and job growth continues to be sluggish and benefits from falling oil prices may not continue in the near future.

The fact is that achche din has not dawned yet. The decline in global oil prices has been partially responsible.  Commodity prices which account for 51 per cent of our country’s imports have all gone down.  This has improved our Current Account, controlled inflation and thereby increased our GDP growth. But the Government can hardly take credit for these changes. In fact, they have gone and offset the declining oil prices by levying an additional cess of Rs.6 at the petrol pump which is up from Rs.2 and this has directly hit the aam aadmi.

The grand ideas of the Government are to receive funding from these completely unrealistic estimates listed in the receipts budget.  They said that they are going to get tax collections of Rs.10 lakh crore.  What radical reforms has the Government initiated that would actually motivate people to pay this level of taxes? Even the GST is not going to come in during this fiscal year. So, how does the Government justify its predicted increase in revenue collections? This year, there is actually a tax revenue shortfall of Rs. 68,795 crore.  In fact, we actually have a continuing high fiscal deficit mainly because of low revenue collections which are in fact much lower than the figures projected by the Government in its overambitious maiden Budget.  So, where is the extra revenue going to come from?  And which bits of the family’s silver are going to be sold for the strategic disinvestments worth Rs.28,500 crore? The Government does not say; the Budget does not say.  Very frankly, Mr. Chairman, Sir, the numbers do not add up.  At the same time, the Government proposes to flood the country with projects – infrastructure development, manufacturing, employment guarantee, round the clock power, housing for all, poverty alleviation, total sanitation and hygiene – all while allegedly maintaining fiscal discipline.  Now, what kind of magic shows are being offered?  Is there a PC Sorcar sitting in the North Block to wave a wand? An exhaustive list of expenditures and insufficient resources really makes us worry, Mr. Chairman, about how the Government can possibly fulfil its promises. 

The Finance Minister’s Speech was fine.  As often with this Government its sound bites and rhetoric are fine.  That is what they are good at.  But in the face of a lack of adequate resources abetted by low tax collections, a dangerously high fiscal deficit and insufficient corporate spending, it is not enough.

You give us a fine vision.  How do you implement it?  That is where the challenge lies.  I am afraid that we have real concerns on the ability of the Government to manage its finances.  Why do I say this?  The Government began its tenure when the UPA left with a cash balance of Rs.72,637 crore and investment surplus of Rs.50,000 crore.  You know, what they are left with at the end of the second quarter of this fiscal year – cash balance of Rs.10 crore and investment surplus of Rs.19,000 crore. So, cash balance of Rs.72,600 crore has come down to Rs.10 crore and investment surplus of Rs.50,000 crore has been reduced to Rs.19,000 crore, and now we are supposed to trust the Government to manage our taxpayers’ money! 

In fact, the Government has also been borrowing; 98.9 per cent of the Budget Estimate had already been borrowed by November 2014.  In fact, they are going to be borrowing above the Budget Estimate for the previous year.  So, where is any prudent financing in this Budget? Can we trust the Government to optimally use the taxpayers’ money?

Shri Moily has already explained our concerns about the way in which the Government is selling the Finance Commission recommendation of giving 42 per cent instead of 32 per cent of revenues to the States.  The problem is that they have actually not done anything about increasing money to the States.  They have simply reduced the Central allocations to balance this.  So, the fact is that the States will receive an increased share of the Union taxes but they have a greater financial burden in implementing the Central Schemes.  So, you announce the projects but you do not fund them.  That is what is happening, Mr. Chairman.

The onus of social development has been shifted to the States without an equitable increase in their finances.  Many States have already passed their Budgets.  They have already allocated funds under the old system.  So, we are actually jeopardising their ability to do their work.  The Finance Minister has basically shrugged off social sector responsibilities under the garb of cooperative federalism.   

          To give you one example, the Panchayats are the worst affected under this Budget. The UPA had given Rs. 70,000 crore. This Government previous year gave Rs. 3,400 crore; and the present Budget has given Rs. 94 crore.  How are the Panchayats going to function, Mr. Chairman?

          If you look at the sector-specific allocations, it is a very dismal portrait.  ‘Make in India’ is being talked about. It is not at all clear what incentives they are giving to attract high investments for manufacturing facilities, especially at a time when incomplete projects costing Rs. 18 lakh crore, about 13 per cent of the GDP have tied up our pubic and private funds.

          Mr. Jaitley, in his speech, pointed to three “major successes” of this Government – the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana; the transparent auction of coal blocks, and the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan.  Let us take each of these in turn, Mr. Chairman.

The success of the Jan Dhan Yojan is questionable.  The Government claims to have insured financial inclusion of 100 per cent but they leave out the urban poor, beggars, rag-pickers, slum dwellers, small vendors and the homeless. They are all left out. That is okay. It is not 100 per cent inclusion. But still they boast about 12.5 crore new bank accounts.  Seventy-three per cent of those bank accounts  have zero balance, Mr. Chairman.  How does an empty bank account help change anyone’s life?

          As regards coal auctions, they were imposed by the Supreme Court but are being portrayed as a policy preference of the NDA. Okay, we would listen to that.  But their efficacy must be judged by whether coal gets to the power stations that are currently starved of fuel sources and whether we cut back on our imports of coal.  On that, the jury is still out.

          As regards the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, this is increasingly looking like a series of photo-ops with grandees picking up brooms for the camera on Gandhi Jayanti and never touching them again until the next camera rolls around. Toilets are being constructed.  But are they being used? Are they being cleaned?  Is there water and electricity in these toilets?  Surveys suggest that the real figures used are dismal.    I am shocked to discover that the Central allocation to the  Swachh Bharat Mission in the coming financial year would be Rs. 3,500 crore, which is less than the current allocation of Rs. 4,260 crore and even much less than the originally promised Rs. 134,000 crore over five years.  With this amount of money, the Government will not be able to fulfil its promise of building a toilet for every household in the next five years. It is impossible.  But why should we be surprised, Mr. Chairman?  In   Gujarat, the then Chief Minister, Mr. Modiji could only achieve one percentage point reduction in rural open defecation between 2001 and 2011.  Why should we expect him to do better at the national level than he did in his own State?  At that rate, with these policies and this Budget, India will take more than 50 years to eliminate open defecation.

          When I accepted the Prime Minister’s kind invitation to be one of his original brand ambassadors for Swachh Bharat,  I warned that photo-ops might raise public awareness but would not solve the problem without serious Central Government investment in sanitation infrastructure.  This Budget allocation   does not do that.  It   is far worse than I feared.  It is a betrayal of the hopes raised by all these photo-ops.  It merely provides the Government an excuse and the Prime Minister an excuse to wash his hands of the sanitation issue altogether.

          The Finance Minister actually clapped himself on the back over what he, echoing the Economic Survey, called the ‘JAM’ Trinity – Jan Dhan, Aadhar and Mobile – to implement benefits through direct transfer.  But this ‘JAM’ was actually the UPA’s bread and butter.  These all schemes were  devised by the UPA Government, sneered at by the Opposition at that time, and I am sure, it is too much to hope for Mr. Jaitley to acknowledge this.

          But let me point this Government back to the real India, the rural poor.  Our   rural economy is witnessing a slackening labour market, with rural wages registering an annual growth of 3.8 per cent whereas under the UPA, Sir,  we had the highest growth at 26 per cent and an average growth of 18 per cent during the five year period from 2009 to 2014.  We have come from an average growth of 18 per cent to 3.8 per cent today. 

          The Government just declares new schemes, does not fund them.  We are told that all MPs have been urged to contribute to the Adarsh Gram Yojana.  But if you ask where the money is, you are told: “Use existing schemes.” Aray  if the existing schemes have not made the Grams adarsh, would the Government’s  declaration be enough?

 I would wrap up in two minutes,  Mr. Chairman.

          The basic point is that the effective measures to help the poor, particularly the rural poor, have simply not been introduced.  Of course, the Government has slashed the allocation for agriculture by 25 per cent from the previous years’ Budget Estimate.  Agriculture has grown by 1.1 per cent this year.  So, what is going to happen?  More and more rural poor will be pushed out of the land.  They will come to the limited urban areas where the NDA Government can offer them only slogans about ‘Make in India’.  They need to make it in India but for that, they need real jobs.  Where are these coming from?  Slogans and sound-bits do not make factories run.  They have also talked about creating a single national market for agriculture.  But Mr. Chairman, how can they do that when they are also talking about cooperative federalism?  I have no idea. 

          Let me just quickly wrap up Mr. Chairman, with two last points.  One is the gap between their plans and the resources provided.  Whether it is for creating AIIMS or for non-renewable energy targets, all their objectives are not matched by any numbers in the Budget.  I am happy to give the details, if the Minister wants.  They simply do not match. The health outlay has actually come down at a time when we need better health.  They have gone and banned the BBC documentary on rape but they slashed the funding for the national rape crisis centres, they have announced a mere amount of Rs. 18 crore whereas they announced Rs. 244 crore last year.  This is a much more unkind cut than any cut on the BBC’s editing tables.

           Let me conclude by saying that you cannot, for example, announce IITs including one in my State, by actually pledging to give Rs. 1000 crore for 5 IITs when each IIT costs Rs. 2,200 crore to be paid over seven years.  It is simply not realistic. 

          Our future generations will pay the price for this Budget. As Muzaffar Razmi has observed: -

“Yeh jabr bhi dekha hai taareekh ki nazron ne, lamhon ne khataah ki thii, sadiyon ne sazaa paayii”

This is what is going to happen to all of us.  Jai Hind Mr. Chairman.